“Nevertheless, we’re seeing regular will increase and that could be a concern,” he stated. “And the opposite factor that could be a big concern is that if the brand new pressure positive factors a foothold right here, it could possibly actually unfold very, very quickly.”
Epidemiologists are cautious of calling for speedy new lockdowns. As an alternative, for now, they’re calling for focused measures to attempt to convey down an infection charges, resembling a push for extra testing in probably the most affected ZIP codes and among the many most susceptible.
In an inverse impact, components of the town with the bottom charges of the virus — rich ZIP codes in Manhattan and Brooklyn — are likely to have the very best charges of testing, city data reveals. That ought to change, Dr. Frieden stated, with extra testing surging into harder-hit areas.
Patrick Gallahue, a spokesman for the town well being division, stated the town was already focusing its testing assets in hard-hit areas. Extra restrictions on companies or gatherings, he stated, must be enacted by the state.
However to reverse course in New York Metropolis earlier than a vaccine takes impact will doubtless take extra drastic measures, resembling a lockdown, a number of specialists stated.
Metropolis officers want the state’s permission earlier than instituting any citywide shutdowns, apart from colleges. Mr. Cuomo has recommended that colleges ought to shut provided that the an infection charge inside college buildings was larger than that of the neighborhood. As of midweek, the citywide constructive test rate in schools was far less, at 0.49 %.
Dr. Nash stated different purple strains and parameters needs to be established to information shutdown choices, resembling one round mortality: What number of deaths per day will we settle for earlier than we lock down? He additionally known as for extra consideration to native circumstances, resembling virus charges in neighborhoods with overwhelmed intensive care items, and to the pace of the virus’s transmission, a measure often called R0, which isn’t often printed by the state. State officers say they observe these numbers internally.